Response:
I don't know about you, but from what I've researched, the buzzing window opens when the host stops speaking. When I play from home, I don't count any responses I would make if someone has already buzzed in. So maybe we're disagreeing on that because of our different counting methods. I'm quite strict on this, and I thought it was how everyone counted Coryat.
Second, I acknowledge I made a slight error, when I calculated James's and Amy's score before, I omitted Daily Doubles. So my new calculated ranges would be:
James - 43,000-46,500
Amy - 40,000-43,500
Matt - 41,000-44,500
Old comment:
You don't seem to understand that what I'm saying MUST be right, to some degree of uncertainty. I can walk you through exactly what assumptions I'm making, and where there is a degree of error to be had.
Amy buzzes in on 45.5 questions per game, on average: We have her averages for her last 11 games. This number could be a little higher or lower, but it's around that number. It's not 50 questions, and it's not 40, we know that for a fact.
Amy is 95.84% accurate, James is 97.21% accurate, and Matt is 92.64% accurate. We know this to a certainty.
Amy's Coryat is $967 lower than Matt's, and Matt's is $2,663 lower than James'. This is also a fact.
My simulations, while not perfect by any means, have beyond a reasonable doubt shown that you need to be EXTREMELY dominant on the buzzer to impact Coryat significant money, like to the tunes of 3-5k.
We know Matt has a higher Coryat than Amy. We know Matt is less accurate than Amy. We know buzzing speed is a relatively small factor in Coryat. Therefore, what can we conclude? The only possible conclusion, that Matt buzzes in on more questions than Amy. I don't get exactly what you are disputing here. Are you disputing that Amy buzzes in on 45.5 questions? Are you disputing that buzzing speed is a relatively small factor?
Let me tell you this. It is a nigh statistical impossibility that if Amy buzzes in on 45.5 questions, has an adjusted accuracy of 91.58%, and a Coryat of $3,630 lower than James, for James to be buzzing in on 53 questions, which is what would be required to have an at-home Coryat of $45,000.
I would like to know precisely what you think I'm wrong about. Because there are really only 3 areas of contention
Perhaps Amy's true buzz number average is more like 47 and 45.5 is an underestimate from her last 11 games. This would bump up average Coryats by around 1,500/
You think buzzer speed is why Matt average 1,000 over Amy, despite being 4% less accurate than her, but this would literally argue against your own hypothesis, so I doubt this is what you have a problem with
James can have a 53/57 buzz-in rate, a 97% accuracy, same buzzer prowess as Amy, and ONLY score 3,500 Coryat ahead of her. The math just doesn't math here. He can't be buzzing in on that many more questions than her with even higher accuracy, and only be $3,500 ahead. Have you seen James on The Chase? He's a fucking beast, but he's still human, and he gets some questions wrong that I know the answer to, despite him being far better at overall trivia than me. Everyone has questions they don't know.
Once again: If we are talking strict Coryat scoring at-home (only counting answers where you knew it before anyone said their response and counting negs honestly), Amy would score 46.5 questions, Matt around 47.4, and James 49.8, give or take a 1-1.5 questions of error for each person. So James's high end is around 46,500. (My original estimates were an underestimate because I forgot about the 3 DD not being a part of buzzes).