Oops, looks like I fell asleep and woke up in the 18th century again. How reassuring to be back in the clockwork universe, and to know that I can precisely predict all future events from present conditions. Anyone who can't do that, of course, is a charlatan.
The reason these health threats are "vague" is that health is complex and, like all complex systems, is better modeled as probabilistic than deterministic. Obesity is a risk factor for certain health problems. That doesn't mean that any given obese person is suffering from or ultimately will suffer from any specific set of associated issues, but it does mean that the probabilities of many issues are increased, and that is a very real cause for concern - with all risk factors. Women with faulty BRCA genes get preventative mastectomies because of risks, not because they think they're psychic.
Let's look at how Ragen's dismissal of "VFHT" maps to another major risk factor, smoking:
For smoke shamers the VFHT seems to be their ultimate trump card because, basically, they are claiming to be able to predict the future, and who can argue with that?
I can. I find this to be paternalist, ignorant, unsupported, and annoying for the following reasons:
The psychic friends network went out of business for a reason. If we take a step back we soon realize that this whole mess is based on us believing that this person can predict the future of every smoker.
This seems to be designed to make sure that smokers never ever believe they’ve done “enough” for their health or healthcare which is neither helpful, nor evidence-based.
Everyone is going to die. There is a 100% chance. I just happen to live in a culture where if I die because a runaway truck drops 30,000 pounds of bananas on me – someone will blame it on my smoking. That doesn’t make it true.
What if I changed the rules of the lottery so that if you lost, you had to pay the lottery money as a penalty? Now not only is your chance of winning almost non-existent, but there is a near 100% chance that you’ll end up with LESS money than you had after you bought the ticket. Would you play? Now imagine that this isn’t your money we’re talking about – it’s your long term health. These are the odds that we play when we quit.
The person VFHTing me is asking that I do something they can’t prove is possible, for a reason they can’t prove is valid, with a very high percentage that I’ll end up less healthy at the end. I’ll pass. And that doesn’t even take into consideration the fact that health isn’t an obligation, a barometer of worthiness, or entirely within our control regardless of our addiction.
Ironclad logic. Society really should stop discriminating against poor Joe Camel.