Wells report thread - 5/10/15

Disclaimer: I made a separate post but the Auto-Mod told me to post this here. It's related to Fumbling statistics.

I keep seeing people say,"Look at the Fumble Statistics, the Patriots have been cheating for years" and "How come the Patriots never fumble and have the least amount of fumbles?".

I decided to take the time to check into these 'Claims'.

Year Patriots Fumbles (Lost) League Best League Worst
2014 13 (4) 11 (Vikings) 31 (Colts)
2013 24 (9) 12 (Panthers) 32 (Bills)
2012 14 (7) 9 (Falcons) 37 (Eagles)
2011 13 (5) 6 (Saints) 30 (Bucs)
2010 9 (5) Patriots 33 (Cards)
2009 17 (9) 11 (Colts) 33 (Seahawks)
2008 17 (10) 12 (Panthers) 36 (49ers)
2007 14 (6) Tie w/Colts 42 (Raiders)
2006 27 (15) 13 (Colts) 32 (Raiders)
2005 19 (9) 14 (Colts) 36 (Cowboys)
2004 24 (13) 12 (Lions) 42 (Dolphins)
2003 25 (11) 13 (Chiefs) 37 (Ravens)
2002 24 (10) 7 (Chiefs) 40 (Vikings)
2001 29 (13) 18 (Titans) 41 (Giants)
AVG 19 (9) 13 36

My Analysis on the table: The claims that Patriots fumble way less than everyone else is false. They are better than average in terms of total fumbles and are very good at recovering their own fumbles. As you can tell the Patriots average 19 fumbles lost a year, of those 19 they usually recover 10 and only lose 9, which seems to be better than most other teams.

I think people tend to use Turnover differential and assume we just never fumble.

Year Turnover Diff Ranking
2014 +12 T-2nd
2013 +9 8th
2012 +25 1st
2011 +17 3rd
2010 +28 1st
2009 +6 T-8th
2008 +1 T-15th
2007 +16 3rd
2006 +8 T-4th

My Analysis: The Patriots fair very well when it comes to turnover differential, but this stat doesn't just include fumbles. This stat includes Fumbles (Lost Only) Interceptions (We have Brady) against our defense's ability to Recover Fumbles and Get Interceptions. We fair very well at recovering our only fumbles and we have the 2nd best all time TD-Int ratio QB. Our defense's seem to be average or a little above average at forcing turnovers. Couple the average defense, Arguably Best QB ever, and a team that recovers their fumbles at around 50% and you have a team that typically does well in turnover differential.

Random Fact: Tom Brady is second on the all time (active) fumble list.

Source for fumble chart data

Source for Turnover Differential

/r/Patriots Thread