Here is how I see the finances of Alberta (I live in Edmonton).
Basically Alberta lost its job. It is now paying the bills using a collection of credit cards. The more it spends on credit cards the higher the interest rates on those cards are going to go.
Alberta thought abut putting out its resume but Alberta can't move to where the jobs are.
So now Alberta is going to the corner store and buying lottery tickets with the CC money. It comes home scratches some tickets but unless it gets three $80 barrels in a row it can't win. Maybe just maybe the lottery is going to pay off but then it will only delay until the next lottery win is needed.
The problem is that nearly everyone else in Canada didn't know it but Alberta was slipping a little money into all their bank accounts. That money has stopped coming so all the kids who used to throw rocks at Alberta on the way to school now wish for Alberta to win the lottery.
The worst part is that in Alberta's spare time it is puttering around and painting everything green. This is all fine and good but at a point where every penny counts this painting everything green might not only turn around and result in cash flow disaster, but the reality is that to get back into the black Alberta might need to pretty much set the oil field out back on fire.
While Alberta should have saved for a rainy day, and maybe been a bit greener in the flush days, the reality is that I don't think Alberta understands the various people living in the house. Most of them are here for the low rent(taxes) and good food. The portions are getting really small so if the more capable residents will move in with their BC cousins or maybe into Ontario house.
I really feel sorry for Alberta as all this infrastructure still needs to be paid for, but like someone who lost their job after blowing all their money on a monster truck, 4 ATVs, a crappy McMansion, and really really ugly sneakers; all after not bothering to finish school, it just isn't going to end well.
I would say that Alberta has 3 futures. Oil fairies put the price of oil back up and everyone breathes a sigh of relief. Alberta uses what resources (cash not oil) to completely and harshly rethink what Alberta does. Or it continues to pretend that all is good, spends the last of the money on painting the place 8 shades of green, and then turns into Detroit when all the capable people leave for genuinely greener pastures and only the useless barnacles remain behind.
I have travelled the world and have seen many one industry towns where the one industry died. In nearly all of them they spent decades either propping up the crap industries, or just waiting for them to return. Then after everything had turned to crap about one in twenty of these places realized that things needed to change and started to move on. The reality was that in each of these places an entire generation had to grow up who only regarded the dead industry as dead. No nostalgia, no false dreams.
So my prediction for Alberta is that oil will bounce up one more time. It needs to not just start the party again but that is when to convert Alberta from Oil to something else. It need not be pie in the sky such as tech, or making cars; but something like a huge plastics' industry.
I doubt this will happen. All the political supporters of the day when oil bounces will pretty much demand that they be compensated for waiting through the lean times. They will eat until the trough is empty and then go back to scheming.
If you want to see how this looks after 100 years just visit NS. The only industry in NS is being a seagull orbiting around the garbage dump that is the legislator and swooping in for some morsels when opportunity presents.