It depends on what you mean by crapshoot - reaches? Or super-reaches (HYPS)? Applicants need to consider acceptance rates, as well as academic stats, in categorizing reaches, matches, and safeties.

Generally under 20% (I might even go as high as 30%) acceptance rate, I would categorize them as reaches for all, even students with stats over the 75th percentile.

For safeties, well over 50% acceptance rate, preferably >60%. That kid who is relying on a safety school with a 40% acceptance rate may not realize that the school can afford to reject high stats applicants that don't show the right fit or seem otherwise unlikely to attend. Then there are those posts "I got rejected from my safety" (an oxymoron) for failing to account fo that. Call those a low match instead, at least until you have an affordable acceptance in hand that can then become the safety.

If I worked hard, got a 4.0 gpa, 34 act, I started a club, president of it and student gov, went to finals in a debate competition, and am an above average varsity athlete. Is it still a crap shoot for me.

Yes. You don't know whether the AO will detect the same level of arrogance in your essay.