Here's a TL;DR of the Greferendum:
The question being asked is, essentially: 'should the proposal by the Eurogroup and International Monetary Fund be accepted?'. This quite opaque question is, in many ways, a referendum on Greece's current government, Syriza, elected in January of this year.
How did we get here?
Syriza was elected as the largest party in the Greek parliament on a radical left wing platform, and was able to secure a majority of seats in Parliament by forming a coalition with Greek nationalists. In their view, it is not possible, nor has it ever been possible for Greece to pay the huge amounts of money demanded of them. They also believe that the demands being made of them, especially the cutting of government pensions, are unjust. Unemployment in Greece throughout the crisis has remained well above 25% and youth unemployment is much higher. Therefore, they campaigned in January for a re-negotiation of Greece's debts, demanding 1) easing the tax burden of the Greek people 2) reversing spending cuts and most importantly 3) having a large portion of Greece's debt "forgiven".
The European Commission [EC] (led by Commission President Jean-Claude Junker), the European Central Bank [ECB] (headed by ECB president Mario Draghi) and the International Monetary Fund [IMF] (headed by Christine Lagarde) (collectively known as the Troika) were obviously displeased with this result. From their perspective the new government had little authority to re-negotiate these already confirmed and signed agreements. Secondly, they believed that the Greek government had almost finished its reform process. By January 2015 Greece's was in primary surplus, i.e. the government was taking more in as taxes than it was spending. However, the money required to pay off the upcoming debt obligations, when combined with ordinary government spending, was still more than the government was taking in as taxes.
Negotiations on the debt between the new Syriza government led by Alexis Tsipras took place, with Greek finance minister Varoufakis as chief negotiator. No deal which as acceptable to both sides was reached despite months of talks. Much to the shock of the entire world Alexis Tsipras called a surprise referendum with only a week's notice.
After the referendum was called, but before it could take place (today), the deadline for Greece's debt payments came and the government effectively defaulted.
What will the consequences of a "yes" or "no" be?
A yes vote is the most straightforward. Essentially Syriza's position will be almost totally undermined and austerity will continue, much as it has done for the past five years. Greece will remain a European Union [EU] and Eurozone member, pensions and government services will be cut, and Tsipras and Varoufakis will likely from their current positions.
However there is some degree of ambiguity. Given the fact that Greece has now defaulted, the offer from the Troika isn't necessarily on offer anymore. So they could refuse to accept it. Whether they do so or not is incredibly uncertain.
A no vote is much more uncertain. The most dramatic speculation expects that Greece would run out of money completely and be forced to print its own currency in order to pay its bills. This would have two consequences: 1) free from the Euro, Greece would be able to devalue its currency over the longer term and make itself competitive against richer economies and 2) Greece would be in contravention of the EU treaties (which are effectively the constitution of the EU) and would therefore likely be expelled from the EU.
However, even if Greece starts using a new currency, it may not necessarily be expelled from the EU. The European Court of Justice, and associated organisations, may choose to ignore this infringement on the treaties, or, or likely, the EU heads of government will gather and create a new treaty (effectively an amendment to the constitution of the EU) which grants the ability for Greece to remain an EU member despite infringing the treaties.
But Greece may not even need to use its own currency. A further possibility is that Greece, in the event of a "no" vote, will start issuing "IOUs" (promises of payment in the future) alongside its use of the Euro. This is not a new currency and therefore in accordance with the treaties. The Greek government may hope that, at this point, the Troika will come back and offer new terms in their agreement. However, Politico's reporting of private conversations between Jean-Claude Junker and members of the Christian Democratic Bloc suggest that they are skeptical of Syriza's interest in obtaining a deal securing their place in the Eurozone at all.
So, what do the polls says?
The polls are on a knife edge. Some polling organisations have given the "no" camp a 0.5% lead, but there is normally a 3% error margin. Additionally, both a "yes" and a "no" vote are seen as radical choices, so we cannot rely on a last minute conservative swing as in other European referendums, like the 2014 Scottish referendum.
So there's really no predicting which way this is gonna go?
None whatsoever.
I guess we better sit back and bite our nails then!
Yes indeed.
Further information
Seven page PDF explanation by the University of Chicago
Greek Jargon buster / AKA "What the fuck do all these words and acronyms mean"
Opinion piece by the BBC's former Europe chief editor (Gavin Hewitt)
Live coverages
The moderators of Europe
