This is a best of 1 match between mouz and Kinguin. This is part of PGL Season 1 and is part of the EU Last Chance Lower Final. This match should be pretty important for both teams. If they lose this match, I believe they are out of PGL(correct me if I'm wrong). These 2 teams have faced off once before in PGL EU Qualifiers. This was in early August + it was with a different roster for mouz. They did have Spiidi instead of niKo. niKo has been going off since he joined the team and has definitely been an improvement. When mouz and Kinguin did play, Kinguin was able to 3-0 them in a best of 5. If you would like to view the results, click here.
Kinguin was able to take those maps pretty easily without any big struggle. You can see that the scores are 16-5, 16-7, and 16-13. Mouz was able to take an 11-4 half against Kinguin but they were ultimately able to comeback and win 16-13. This was in early August and roster changes have happened with mouz so it could be different this time especially with niKo.
Kinguin
Kinguin is a pretty nice tier 2 team. Kinguin is a team that is more based on their aim and tries to win their aim duels. They have some excellent players on the team like ScreaM or rain who can go insane. If you've looked at their results you can ScreaM going big in games. Like I mentioned earlier, Kinguin is a team that likes to rely on their aim. If they become more "tactical", I can really see some big potential in them. They've been able to pull of nice victories as well like beating Virtus.Pro 16-0 on Cache and Cloud9 on Dust2 16-13. Kinguin is also one of those inconsistent teams, some days you can see them play out of their minds while other days you see them slumping. eBettle was able to beat Kinguin on Dust2, which is one of their best maps in my opinion.
Kinguin is solid on maps like Cache, or Dust2. Though they tend to do well on most maps they play. We've started to see them develop a strength for the map Train recently. Hopefully they can start expanding their map pool even further.
FACEIT League 2015 (9-3-15): (Cache) F3 21-19 Kinguin | (Mirage) Kinguin 16-8 F3 | (Train) Kinguin 16-5 F3
PGL Season S1 (9-3-15): (Mirage) Kinguin 16-13 Dignitas
FACEIT League 2015 (9-2-15): (Train) E-Frag 16-13 Kinguin | (Mirage) Kinguin 16-2 E-Frag | (Cache) Kinguin 16-8 E-Frag
Kinguin's been looking decent with these results. After Cologne ended, Kinguin seemed to be in a slump. They were just being inconsistent and not being "usual Kinguin"(if that makes sense). They recently started to win matches again which has been pretty nice to watch. Kinguin was able to beat E-Frag pretty convincingly after losing the first map. They then were able to beat Dignitas and F3 today.
Mousesports
Mousesports is a high tier 2 german team. They have a team filled with great players. They have gob b who is an excellent IGL. They have niKo and nex who are insane fraggers(search up videos of them if you don't know what I'm talking about). chrisJ is also a pretty good AWPer. You can't disclude denis as he's a pretty good player for mouz as well. Let's talk about niKo. He recently replaced Spiidi as a starter for mouz and it was definitely a good choice. He's been pretty much top fragging in these games that he's been playing recently(i.e Titan, fnatic, Dignitas). They weren't looking the best today though. They got demolished by TSM(at least in the first half). You might be saying, "it's TSM" but they still shouldn't be losing a half 14-1. They then played Titan who they beat 16-14 which was a really close game.
Mouz has a pretty decent map pool. They're pretty much able to play any map but really are good at Dust2, Mirage, and Cache. They were able to beat Cloud9 on Dust2 in a convincing manner as well as beat fnatic on Cache during the first time the played against each other.
PGL Season 1 (9-3-15): (Dust2) mouz 16-14 Titan
PGL Season 1 (9-3-15): (Overpass) TSM 16-7 mouz
PGL Season 1 (9-2-15): (Cache) fnatic 16-3 mouz | (Train) mouz 16-9 fnatic | (Dust2) fnatic 16-9 mouz
Mouz has for the most part been looking solid after the addition of niKo, who is just an insane fragger. They didn't look so well after the games against TSM and Titan but those games may've just been bumps in the road. Titan looks like they've been improving in these couple of games. They've just been getting better and better. Overall mouz is still a great team with excellent players and I really think they can beat most teams on a good day.
Conclusion
The match hasn't been posted to CSGL yet but I'm really leaning towards mouz here. This match is going to be close but I think mouz's players can pull it off here; especially with the new addition of niKo. I think this game is going to be pretty close, especially since it's a best of 1 which makes it even more risky to bet on. I can see this game going either way though.
My odds: 60-40 mouz
My prediction: mouz
My bet: Low mouz as I can really see them taking this. If odds are below 28% for Kinguin, a low Kinguin might not be bad.
Risk: High
You can check out my spreadsheet here.
I have recently created a betting group! If you would like to join, message me for information or click on the spreadsheet! The spreadsheet is for the betting group trial in which I have started. Feel free to look at my reddit for previous analysis'.
Thanks for reading!