Hello I am back with some analysis after quitting for several months.
I have been betting by myself and felt like I wanted to share some predictions with you guys again.
NiP vs LG BO3
MAPS: TBA, TBA, TBA
So NiP had a good showing against Fnatic and Liquid. Tbh, despite my flair, NiP should have lost on DD2 vs Liquid. Liquid just had a disappointing choke once again. Players I saw that had lots of impact on the game was Pyth with the AWP on CT side. NiP's T side was horrendous, their executes could not be completed. F0rest was missing easy shots with the AWP on T side, and was awful to see. On to the fnatic game. I didn't see this game, but judging from Dennis's post-interview, they are still experimenting with Wenton and didn't have much practice as a team. You could basically say Wenton was a standin for fnatic for this game, so it should have been NiP's game anyways. Things noticed from this game post HLTV: all players performed better than their first game against Liquid, however GeT_Right still seems to have some problems.
Straight off the bat, they lost to G2 with 80% overdog favorites (I think?) in a BO1. It was a close game if you watched it, and it could've been anyone's game if 1 or 2 rounds went to LG, but the went to G2 instead. Well played by G2. They are playing well with bodyy. Smithzz finally had some impact in the game, and typical Shox is the carry and man of the match. However, Scream was doing poorly. This may have been because of the first match of LAN, and he said on twitter that he needed to practice more. Props to the man to practice on the day he didn't have a match. G2 vs OG was a pretty straight forward game, G2 should win against a Top 5 NA team (don't ask me for my ranking of NA teams thanks).
Head to Head
When LG is on point (they were not on point against G2 on Train), they are very hard to stop. Cold and Fallen each hold their sites very well. I haven't seen G2 on point lately, but it seems like they are getting better with bodyy. I need to see RPKTANK, shox and Scream to make great plays in order for G2 to even have a chance to beat LG in a BO3. Smithzz will also need to hit his shots and shut down lanes instead of wiffing many shots.
This match will be played in 2 day's time, so we need to see who will be practicing during the off days of this tournament. Luminosity's map pool is also definitely larger than G2 by a big margin.
My odds are currently 65-35 for LG, depending on maps.
Maps I expect to be banned:
LG bans Cache
G2 bans Mirage
(I don't know the rest, if someone could help me that would be great)
Maps I expect to be played:
Train : 55-45 LG
Cbble : 60-40 LG
Inferno(?) : 60-40 LG
If LG decides to slide DD2 in (probably not) : 60-40 G2
Since odds will probably be 75-25 LG on CSGOL by the time the match starts, I would suggest a LOW+ bet (~2%) on G2 and hope for an unlikely upset.
Check out my spreadsheet below!
Please comment on things I may have did wrong and I will be glad to fix.