Link to the original study.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484

the proportion of COVID‐19 deaths that occurred in nursing homes was often higher under mrNPIs rather than under less‐restrictive measures.

it is possible that stay‐at‐home orders may facilitate transmission if they increase person‐to‐person contact where transmission is efficient such as closed spaces.

In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020.

More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures