Lula's Trip to China Matters More Than Macron's

There are some truths there, but some misunderstandings. I do have a bias here, being Brazilian, but:

a) Brazil is still a regional leader. Whenever Brazil bothers to lead the diplomacy of the continent, we lead. Sure, there was some backslashes, specifically the Iran botched nuclear deal and the whole Bolsonaro term that was a monster on its own, but whenever Brazil bothers to lead the subcontinent, we do. Colombia is tight with the US, but they have pretty much zero say in the diplomacy of Latin America. Mexico has some influence in the Caribbean, but 0 south of Panama. When you consider the size of South America, the natural resources and how Subsaharan Africa cannot for the love of their lives find a centralized power to rally behind, our diplomatic presence is important (if it wasn't, there would not be the outcry for Lula's statements on the Ukraine War).

b) There is bad blood between Brazil and the US and it is not recent. The US is historically the responsible for blocking us from a permanent seat in the Security Council (whereas the European countries, Russia and China gave their blessing before), there is a significant sector of the society that still holds a grudge due to the US influence in the 1964 coup (that, besides the deaths, set Brazil back pretty much half-century, considering the aftershock of the hyperinflation) and is no secret that the US has absolute zero interest in Brazil being relevant by any mean. They are not actively pursuing anything against us, but siding with the West, for the whole of Latin America, usually means less of a "let's be friends" and more of a "learn your place". There's a reason why Brazil's governments in this century tried so hard to get close to the European Union when they were thought to become more independent and how we are trying to get so tight with China. The Lula-Obama partnership actually started to amend some of those bridges, but the NSA scandal, followed by Trump, pretty much mined the majority of good will between Brazil and the US. Lula and Biden only got more or less close due to Biden's agenda of trying to undermine the neo-right and a Bolsonaro coup in Brazil was the last thing he would want. Also, China is dumping cash all over Latin America, specially in Argentina, not to mention their initiatives in Africa.

Lula always liked to view Brazil in a place to lead the 3rd World. China allows Brazil to have a partnership in this leadership, whereas the US historically is not so friendly, even when Brazil had quite submissive governments. The OECD debacle before Covid was just the last in a long list of US blunders against Brazil.

c) Last, natural resources. Natural resources will be a hot topic sooner rather than later and South America have them in gallons. There's a reason why China got so close and so friendly with Brazil before pushing their agenda across the continent. With the way things are going, this will not be a "World vs China" Cold War. Central Asia, Subsaharan Africa, Latin America, whatever is left of Russia post-Ukraine. The world is quite uncertain at this point, I just disagree that this is an automatic failure, specially when an eventual Western bloc will not be the default leader of the world (even with some cracks in the EU. France, Portugal and Spain are three countries that are usually quite close with Brazil, specially in the short-term).

With that being said, I do not disagree that Brazil is the forever country of the future. There's a reason why I left this place, after all. I'm pretty sure we will see a new Bolsonaro term in 2026, specially since Lula is focusing more on his World Tour than trying to put down the plethora of fires the 18-22 government put into our institutions, economy, society and environment. I do not disagree that Brazil's future is quite bleak, like pretty much 95% of the world. I just don't think we are in the same tier as the Dominican Republic or something like that. Brazil is still the leader of a landmass larger than Europe, with a ton of natural resources and a strong domestic market. Alone, we would eventually buckle to US sanctions, but with China and the EU maintaining some of the good relations we had before Bolsonaro and should probably continue, considering how leaders like Macron, Sanchez and Silva were all giddy around Lula? We are not Venezuela in this scenario, bringing Brazil to their knees will not be that easy.

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