This is going to play out over the next 3 months as we get more storms and melting runoff water come in. I would only take water in a absolute worst case scenario, so leaving now isn't an option. I'm more worried about losing power and water for an extended period of time, so that's what I want to prepare for.

There are 2 scenarios:

First, and most likely: the primary spillway fails and dumps the top 30ft or so of the lake out, and everything an hour south of the lake is now the lake. I would be fine but some of my city would experience <3ft flooding. Power and water would be out for a week or two.

Seconds, and possible: the emergency spillway fails and the entire lake dumps out destroying every levee along the Sacramento river and putting Sacramento under 15 ft of water. In which case how much flooding I would experience is unknown. I'm outside of the FEMA 500 year flood zone, but close to a slough, so it could be nothing to 1 foot. Power and water would be out indefinitely. Even in this case evacuating would be pointless as I'm on high ground, and the evacuation routes (all of them) would be an absolute parking lot and put me into the 10-15ft flood areas. If evacuations weren't done pre-emptively and only in an emergency after the dam broke, most evacuees on the highways would be killed.