Still seeing a slightly positive slope in new covid-19 cases per day, here's an analogy, using Mike Tyson, to help people understand why this is a make or break moment for us.

I want to feel safer thinking infections are going down, but I just don't see it.

If yesterday they tested 4000 people and 400 are positive, the % positive is 10%.

Now open up testing for healthy, asymptomatic people (add 500 more tests), say 20 are positive. Total tests=4500 total positives now at 420. % positive is now: 9.3%. If none of the healthy people were positive the total rate of positive would be 8.8%.

We can't compare the rolling averages because the criteria for testing has been very fluid.

It feels like the stats can be presented to fit whatever narrative you want.

I guess we should just keep an eye on the Covid hospitalization and covid death numbers to track progress?

I'm all for testing everyone, repeatedly til we get a vaccine. I just have to take the charts with a grain of salt.

/r/sandiego Thread