It wouldn't surprise me if the sales dip was caused by the whole bathroom debacle. Target's core customer base is suburban women with children and most of their stores are located in suburbs or mid-size towns outside of cities. Even though Target probably thought their stance was ethically sound, it was a misstep demographically since it goes against the politics of their core customer base. I find it hard to believe that Target didn't realize that their sales could be negatively impacted when they wandered into that debate, and I'm sure it was a calculated move to appeal to the "social liberal / fiscal conservative" crowd that seems to dominate suburbs. I'm sure the whole debate probably turned off a number of their more conservative customers, which would obviously result in a decline in sales.

Just look at Chick-fil-a. They took a conservative stance on a social issue and their sales went gangbusters. Since Chick-fil-a's and Targets are located in a lot of the same areas, would it really be that shocking to find out that some of those same people would decide to shop elsewhere because they didn't agree with Target's politics? It's really kind of a no-brainer, if Target's priority is sales then maybe next time they'll learn not to shit where they eat.