"POET’s business model would make it similar to fabless semiconductor companies. Third parties would provide the production of its devices and we expect it would have margins similar to those companies below. They now trade at lower valuation resulting at an average of 6.9xs enterprise value to estimated 2022 revenues. Currently POET trades at an enterprise value of $147 million using a fully diluted share count. We need to look further out to where we think revenues would be by 2025. If we say the joint venture is able to reach $200 million in revenues by then and the rest of the business can ramp to $100 million that would be $200 million in revenues for POET in 2025. Using 6.9xs gives us an enterprise valuation of $1.4 billion. Today’s fully diluted share count is 42.0 million shares. We know that the company will probably raise money next year so we are adding 3.75 million shares to the total ($30 million at $8 per share) $1.4 billion divided by 45.75 million shares is $30.15 per share by 2025. This would be a present value of US$13.75 or CN$17.70 per share discounted by 30% per year." (Zacks)
Edit:
Let's say the capital raise would be 30M at 3USD/share somewhere in 2023, we should add 10M shares, that gives us 52M shares fully diluted.
- Let's say total revenue is 10M in 2023, that would give us a shareprice of $1.3 per share. But since POET is very likely to reach 1B revenue by 2028. I think the stock price will rise even before revenue increases exponentially because the market will anticipate what is coming. In 2023, I believe, it will be valuaded at the 2024 target of $18 per share while Zacks aimed on $13.75 in their calculations.
- Let's say total revenue is 50M in 2024, that would give us a shareprice of $18 per share.
- Let's say total revenue is 200M in 2025, that would give us a shareprice of $27 per share.
- Let's say total revenue is 400M in 2026, that would give us a shareprice of $53 per share.
- Let's say total revenue is 600M in 2027, that would give us a shareprice of $80 per share.
- Let's say total revenue is 1B in 2028, that would give us a shareprice of $133 per share.