Why winning RPS for first stage strike doesn't matter

There's a number of counter examples showing preferences in dittos, but I don't think I've seen this counter example:

I main Samus, and naturally I run into a lot of Foxes. I've seen two general Fox strategies against my Samus:

  • One in which Fox is constantly applying pressure.
    • For these Foxes, I strongly prefer maps in which:
      • I have room to move around to try to put distance between us and reset to neutral
      • I have higher platform I can edge cancel a screw attack on.
    • Dreamland is by far the best for me here (live forever, lots of room to run around, side platforms reasonably high to cancel off of), and FD the worst (where I can't edge cancel a screw attack on a platform) the worst.
  • One in which Fox runs away layering until I'm at a percent they can reliably kill with one move - an up-air or up-smash.
    • For these Foxes, I strongly prefer maps in which:
      • The Fox doesn't have much room to run around or get around me, so I can corner him and get some hits in.
    • FD is by far the best for me here (can't get around me without platforms), and Dreamland the worst (far to big for slow Samus to catch fast Fox)

Until I know which strategy the Fox prefers, I don't have a game plan for what to strike. If I can get it down to FD and Dreamland and get the right one, it is a huge advantage - or if I get the wrong one, a huge disadvantage.

  • If I win the RPS and go first, I strike something other than FD or Dreamland.

    • If they strike both FD and Dreamland, I can do the remaining neutral-ish one that favors me. I come out slightly ahead.
    • If they don't strike both FD and Dreamland and it's not a bluff, I know what to strike and come out significantly ahead.
    • If they don't strike both FD and Dreamland and it's a bluff, I strike wrong and am at a significant disadvantage. However, I've never seen anyone do this.
  • If I go second....

    • and their first strike isn't terribly meaningful (e.g. strike Battlefield), I'm at a sizable disadvantage. I've seen this happen a lot.
    • and their first strike is on FD or Dreamland, I ban the other and we go to a evenish stage.

Average those out and it's non-trivially beneficial for me to go first. In my experience winning the RPS has been non-trivially important against every Fox whose style I don't already know. Given how popular Fox is, this happens a fair bit.

/r/SSBM Thread