Sure, but let's try using this point to counter the first condition:

1- The world already perceives Paradis as a threat.

Already established.

2- After seeing the rumbling's true potential, they now perceive it to be a bigger threat than before.

•Not necessarily true, Paradis' perceived level of threat might've already reached a maximize level following the speech and Eren's attack.

•Depending on how the rumbling is stopped, they might realize now that Paradis only attacks when provoked.

3- If '2' holds true, this increases the motivation for attacking Paradis.

•This is also not necessarily true, an increase in the levels of perceive threat might make the world more hesitant when it comes to attacking Paradis, because any attack would increase the likelihood of a rumbling attempt.

4- *If '3' holds true, this would guarantee a successful attack.

•No, Paradis might be able to sufficiently defend itself using the founder's + any titan powers they have.