Are the Tenants of Moneyball Translatable to the Browns? A quick, stupid, shitty analysis by /u/JohnnyFire

Moneyball can work in the NFL, if there is enough statistical data to support the theory of market inefficiencies (a player that is undervalued due to pre-concieved lack of desired traits). However, football is much more immature in the collection of data as opposed to Baseball, and that is why advance stats in football haven't worked, and are misleading.

In baseball, every action is recorded, every pitch, pitch location, every swing, every pop fly, what zone it landed, how fast the ball is thrown, etc. that allows statisticians to determine certain correlations to statistics that most contribute or correlate with a specific leading indicator or most valuable to wins, runs. Football however does not track statistics to this level. We know how many yards were thrown, caught, run, but statistics does not show any much more. We don't know how fast the ball was thrown, arc of the football, who was open, who beat his man, how much push-force the Oline generated, where the the linebackers were, how far was the corner off the reciever in man-to-man, how much speed was covered by a safery in a a zone, etc. If we had that data, we could determine what statistics most contributed to scores or TDs or success of certain plays. In order for us to generate that, we need data down to milisecond level where all the players were, and be able track them on each play. That technology Zebra is starting to do some of that (Zebra tech allows on field player location tracking system) which would help in getting that data-mined for future analysis. However, that technology is still evolving, and not where it needs to be. That is true advance analytics.

Current claimed "advanced" analytics sites like PFF or football insiders are not what most statistical professionals call true advanced stats. This is because they are not using true advanced statistics, but rather, using opinionated "grading systems" or using derivatives of existing available stats (yards, passing yards, TDs, etc.) to derive combine-aggregated statistics to develop new indicators. This however is flawed in that derived stats never truly show a higher correlation or coefficients that show the success rate on a play-by-play level, and grading systems such as PFF are flawed in that the "Grader" does not know what he is looking at and is akeen to a survey based on one's eye. These sites are more for fan-entertainment than true advanced analytics.

We are probably another 10 years away from getting this type of technology and data mining to work in levels where mult-coordination games like football and Soccer can take a leap.

Source: work as a economic statistic/analytics professional in financial banking

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