I couldn't disagree more and I find your reasonings quite subjective and arbitrary. Just because international soccer is more complex does not make it "by far" our biggest NT. Just because people must find alternative new sources to stayed informed does not mean it is our biggest NT. Basketball is king in this country relative to soccer, even internationally.
You don't hear people talking during any NBA regular season about the upcoming Olympics cycle.
That's not true, if you follow bball you'd know. Is it the constant source of attention like USMNT is, no. By this I mean, USMNT is the primary vehicle by which we hear of soccer in this nation. USA BBall is not. NBA > USA BBALL in this country. So of course NBA is going to take precedence. That does not prove or disprove anything with regards to the popularity of USMNT versus USABB. NBA is behind only the NFL in terms of popularity in this country. It's also growing, thanks in large part to its star-power, beyond simply "NBA cities" as you so casually dismissed it. Nationally basketball is at a level soccer could only hope to obtain.
The number of blogs or subreddits does not matter. Do you want to know why? Because the MAJOR outlets (ESPN, FOX, NBC) and nearly every local and regional news outlet follows the sport in a way they do not do with soccer. Therefore there is not as much need for these 'niche markets' to develop. This is due to a number of factors I'd reckon including: complexity of FIFA versus FIBA, # of international appearances, passion of core fans, and mainstream popularity.
Yes, USMNT is growing and gaining popularity, but to suggest that it is more popular than USA BBall is a tad absurd. Especially when "blogs" and "subreddits" are your proof. The only thing this may prove is that soccer may have more to talk about or that it lacks sufficient interest in the news that creates a need for "niche markets" to develop. FIFA is more popular than FIBA globally and there is more to discuss, hence the need for smaller outlets to focus on it constantly, couple this with a very passionate core of soccer fans, and this market develops. However, USMNT needs these outlets since they do garner enough attention nationally that USA BBall gets. I believe your own argument in fact hurts your case here.
Let me put it this way. Do you know why I frequently visit /r/reddevils? Because in America there isn't an adequate substitute to keep me informed. I have to actively seek out such information. I do not have to do that with my other teams because the major outlets are sufficient to keep me informed. That should tell you all you need to know about popularity. If you have to seek out alternative to the mainstream then you can surely guess which is more popular. And yes, I'd imagine those that ACTIVELY seek out information may, on average, be more passionate about their product.
Need more proof: /r/reddevils has 30,000 subscribers. /r/Lakers has 15,000. Consider that reddit is overwhelmingly American (~70%) and you'd possibly come to the conclusion that Manchester United is more popular than the LA Lakers in America. Which is absurdly inaccurate. The need for /r/reddevils as a source of information arose out of the needs of fans to obtain information they desire which the primary markets were not delivering. Lakers fans throughout the nation are likely more satisfied by local and national news then are Manchester United fans. Combine this with the passionate following of soccer fans and the rise of blogs and alternative sources of news should not be surprising. However, it should not be considered as proof that USMNT is more popular than USA BBall; in fact, quite the opposite.
Another factor you dismiss, which is vitally important, is star-power. Individual members of Team USA make the news much more frequently than the USMNT. In fact I'd argue that even the USWMT has much greater star power than the Men's Team. How many soccer players have national recognition and are noted regularly in the major news outlets or in commercials? Donovan was easily our biggest and we lost him. Dempsey mayhaps? Howard possibly. I don't think Bradley has stuck the way that USS hoped. The women have Rapinoe, Solo, Wamback, and Morgan. USA BBall's roster of players who have not made the team carry more star-power than either of those lists.
The meltdown when USA Basketball doesn't win gold is the same as any other USA Olympic team, which as you put it our country expects to succeed.
Were you paying attention what happened in the early 2000's? USA BBall had to undertake massive reform because... we earned a Bronze. This was national news.
everyone turns off their TV & doesn't pay attention for another 4 years.
That's not true with USA BBall. There are the FIBA WC and Qualifications for both. Both were followed extensively on ESPN the same way which USMNT games were.
You also seem to be conflating "number of times in the news" with "popularity." Soccer has a longer international period with friendlies and tournament qualifications which provides more opportunity. That does not prove that USMNT > USABB.
but USMNT is analyzed daily, year-round.
Again, not true. Maybe if you actively seek it out by going to blogs and subreddits it may be, but that is YOUR subjective prerogative and also indicative of your desires. That is not representative of the country as a whole and certainly not major media outlets.
In NBA markets, I'm sure USA Basketball may be just as big or bigger,
NBA markets would be the entire nation in this case.
However, (here is where I strengthen your argument for you) I will proudly acknowledge that USMNT is growing in popularity and is becoming a force both in the nation and on television. I welcome this as a soccer fan.
The World Cup has immense popularity. USMNT games, especially so. The USMNT drew HUGE ratings. Even more so than the NBA Finals. 21.6m for Tim Howard versus Belgium is an incredible feat. Juxtapose that with TV ratings of the Olympic Final only only 12.5m. Now based off this one may come to the conclusion that the USMNT is more popular than USA BBall. However, there are some extra factors which may play a part here including the popularity of the World Cup versus the Olympics, timezone (London versus Brazil), time of year (late June versus Mid-Aug), and other various factors. However, the immense success of the WC and the USMNT is something to marvel at with pride. It excites me.
Unfortunately this 'grand' event only tells a part of the story. A qualifier, against a fierce rival set record ratings of 2.3m and received praise. Again to consider the high Mexican interest in this country may also help elevate those levels, but the high before had been 1.1m. Compare this with the TV ratings of the FIBA World Cup and you get an average of 1.3m and this is considered a disappointment. This should tell you all you need to know relative the national level of interest for both the USMNT and USA BBall. Again, consider that average TV ratings for the USMNT were 0.8 and you can see that outside of the World Cup, USMNT TV ratings fall flat. Even something like the Gold Cup Final draws mediocre TV ratings of 1.7 TV rating.
I love soccer. I'm glad to see it growing and becoming mainstream. However, it is not there yet has a ways to go. Star-power alone and national interest carry the day. BBall is still king, no matter how many 'blogs' say otherwise. I'm glad your passionate about soccer (especially USMNT and MUFC!), but let's not make incorrect statements like USMNT is "by far" our most popular NT. Someday it may be, and that's great news for me.