538 disappointing me yet again with lazy general assumptions supported by prose instead of details.
Two-point conversion success rate: Adjusting for team strength and refining the data to the most comparable situations boosts our estimate to 48.8 percent.
Using league average probabilities are fine and well when you don't have team-specific numbers, but in this case we do.
Expected winning percentage in overtime: Adjusting for the overtime rules changes and playoff dynamics lowers our estimate to 42.6 percent.
Let's also assume this is correct: the Cardinals are the better team and they have a 57.4% chance to win the game if it goes to OT.
Extra point success rate: Adjusting for league trends and kicker Mason Crosby’s skill raises our estimate to 95.9 percent.
Crosby had been perfect on EPs, but let's agree with the author's assumption and give him a 4.1% chance to miss his first on the year.
Putting it all together
With all the above assumptions, it is still right for the Packers to kick an EP and take their 42.6% chance in OT if the probability of success on the 2pt + the probability that they miss the EP is less than 42.6%.
Since we are assuming the probability of missing the 2pt is 4.1%, that means the Packers need to be better than 38.5% in 2 yard situations. On average this year, they are only 36% in these situations. Worse still we were playing a top defense, with a short field, and we were missing two players (Adams and Cobb) responsible for 3 of the 6 2-yard passing conversions on the year. We were arguably in an even a longer spot than we had been in these scenarios for most of the year.