I think this take was vslid 10 games in, but you might be holding on to it too long. The team probably won't fall apart in 2 weeks ... and if nothing has changed in two weeks, they will be about 31-17.

Before immediately thinking that thinking two weeks ahead is jumping the gun, remember that the Yankees have played one of the hardest schedules to start the season, but now half their games over the next two weeks are the A's and Rangers. Then it's the Royals (tough) and 2 games against the Nats (tough), and then it's back to teams like the Marlins, Mariners and Angels. Then it's series with more A's, more Angels, more Rays, the Phillies, etc ... right through the break. Really, it's easier to list the hard series left before the ASG. The Royals once, 2 games against the Nats, the Tigers once and the Astros once. A quick glace and it looks like most of their opponents over the next two months are below .500 and look it.

I always thought of this as current power rankings, and not, "How good are the Nats if Harper breaks a foot hustling a ground ball or the Yanks if Gardner gets beaned". Maybe I always saw the power ranking thing here wrong and that is fine. If what is percieved as poor possible future performance is something that counts though, schedule to date and future performance in the short term should certainly count. I don't see any reason to think the Yankees won't handily win most of the immediate future series, putting them in a posistion where they can play .500 ball right into a wildcard after the road trip and below .500 ball if nothing changes against the weak teams they play in June.

At this point I think it might be a bigger reach to say the Yankees aren't going to be 15 games over .500 at the ASB than saying they will be.