You've led me down a terrible hole of thoughts and what-ifs, haha.

Watto takes the Republic credits, Qui-gon never discovers Anakin on Tatooine, and Amidala's people get to Coruscant before ultimately deciding to return to Naboo.

However, without Anakin there, do they ever manage to destroy the Trade Federation control ship? The lightsaber duel down in the palace probably plays out the same, but Obi-Wan then has to hurry and regroup with the Queen in the throne room, where they're holding Nute Gunray hostage. Maybe they'd then be able to ransom him back to the Federation, in exchange for calling off the droid army that's currently destroying the Gungans on the plains. Maybe.

Then what? Amidala's security and the Gungans might be able to go off the radar (maybe set up a base in Otah Gunga) and carry out a guerrilla campaign for some time, but they'd probably not be able to get out of Theed city at this point. They're surrounded on all sides and taken prisoner once again, under even tighter conditions, and Obi-Wan is stuck with them. Back on Coruscant, things get tenser and tenser about the situation, especially with the newly-elected Chancellor Palpatine in office. The people don't want another Valorum, so he's gonna have to do something.

And Palpatine's in a weird spot anyway. He's just lost his apprentice and dispatched his own master within the span of a few days, so as a Sith he's kind of out in the ocean right now. He did have some sights on Dooku, but originally, Dooku was still flirting with the idea of staying a Jedi until he ultimately heard the terrible news of Qui-gon's death. So maybe Palpatine could jumpstart the rise of Darth Tyranus by exploiting this, and talking him into leading a rogue "rescue mission" to Naboo.

The Trade Federation probably wouldn't trust any more meetings with ambassadors, but I definitely believe "Darth Sidious" could get his apprentice down there in the palace with a few good soldiers under false pretense—I've gotta stop.