I do appreciate the effort you put in, and I'm really not trying to put you down or anything and I can see you have a decent amount of success given your record, but I do think your system is really limited. The fight I would point to is the Edgar Faber fight, which you had predicted a 89% chance of a finish. I feel most people with a solid understanding would see that as a decision. The betting lines reflected that at the time as well. Your percentages ignore a load of things like context, quality of opponent, weight cuts, loss of chin or age, stylistic match ups, number of rounds etc. These are all factors which i would be considering when betting on a finish or and 02.5 and U2.5 market for example.

Looking at the Faber Edgar fight again, for example. If you calculate it using your method you reach 89% chance of a finish, so if they fought 10 times, one of them would finish the other 9 times out of those ten fights. Personally, I would have put this fight at about a 20% chance of being finished at best. I know this is easy to say in hindsight but Edgar decision was probably the largest MMA bet I had ever placed. Taking into account say, Faber not knocking out anyone since 2006 and most of his wins coming from submission, which is unlikely considering Edgar's wrestling pedigree and style, his finishes coming against lesser ranked opponents, the facts that Edgar has never been finished despite fighting much higher ranked fighters than Faber, and Edgar primarily a point fighter.

I'm really not trying to knock you, and we're all on the same team here in that we are all just trying to make some money, and you probably know everything I'm saying already so sorry about that. Just thought I'd give my thoughts, for what they're worth. Sorry for the wall and of course, enjoy the fights and good luck for tonight x