Ok, listen up, it's 1:30am (2:50 now posting) and I should be winding down but I'm not, because this is huge. I realize I could present this much more briefly but I think people enjoy a good rambling story once in a while. Skip down to the data if you want. I should mention, I'm mainly posting this to confirm if this is really true, or if I'm somehow missing something - so I honestly mean it, please prove me wrong if I am.
This has probably been posted before, but that's ok because it's absolutely huge, and I may do a better job of explaining it than most other posts because I'll take the time. IMO, if this is true, this is the biggest COVID vaccine smoking gun to date. If this doesn't get traction, I will repost until it does.
# The Story
**OK - 82% rate of spontaneous abortion under 20 weeks for pregnant women that take the COVID vaccine.** If you're like me, when you see a number like that, you immediately think *"bullshit"* - now I don't really swear, but that's the right word.
"There's just no way that is true" you think. Even your conspiratorial mindset has trouble entertaining that as a possibility. You're a critical thinker and that number just seems astronomically high. We all know how it goes on Reddit, and almost without fail anything that extreme turns out to be junk math, unsourced, lacking context, exaggerated in one way or another, etc.
So that was me, Step 1; saw a few comments about it, even heard Steve mention it on Brett Weinstein's Dark Horse podcast, and thought "come on, there's no way". Even thought it made him lose some credibility before I examined it, rookie mistake that I usually avoid but the claim just seemed so far-fetched (reminder to NEVER do that). Didn't think much of it, but thought I should look into it at some point, cause hey, that's what we conspiracy analysts do.
Step 2, doing some late night browsing, someone posted a link to his webite where he presents the evidence for the 82% number. That link is here, presented broken up in case his site is blocked: skir[remove this]sch.com[remove this]/covid/Vaccine_safety_in_preg_[remove this]NEJM_May_28_2021.pdf
So I read his very brief Letter to the Editor and thought "my goodness, this can't be true". But the math and logic seem so incredibly straightforward...how could this be missed in a so called peer reviewed study? I have to go to the study and confirm this for myself.
Step 3 - Reviewing the original article that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on April 21, 2021. The article is entitled: "Preliminary Findings of mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine Safety in Pregnant Persons". Here is the link: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
# The Data
The table in question is Table 4 in the Results section. The line we're looking at is the "Spontaneous abortion: <20wk. The study claims that all is fine and dandy, because the normal spontaneous abortion rate < 20 weeks is 10-26% (high end is too high) and the vaxxed abortion rate is 12.6%. Wonderful. Nothing to see here, move along. Safe and effective.
But wait a second. The data on pregnancy loss is based on 827 participants. So 104/827 is where they get the 12.6%...BUT, if you read the note marked with the cross †, you see that **"A total of 700 participants (84.6%) received their first eligible dose in the third trimester."**
The math might immediately click in your head, but in case it doesn't, the third trimester doesn't begin until **after** 20 weeks, at week 29 to be exact.
**So for their calculation of spontaneous abortion UNDER 20 weeks, THEY INCLUDED IN THE DENOMINATOR 700/827 WOMEN THAT DIDN'T GET THE FIRST VACCINE DOSE UNTIL LONG AFTER 20 WEEKS.**
Obviously, these 700 women have no place in that calculation, seeing as how they didn't get the intervention being examined (i.e. vaccine) until well after the cut-off for the outcome they are examining.
So that leaves us only 127 participants that could have potentially had the first dose at or before 20 weeks gestation.
104 spontaneous abortions under 20 weeks DIVIDED BY 127 who actually received the vaccine by or before 20 weeks gestation...
Equals EIGHTY TWO PERCENT of pregnant women.
**EIGHTY**
**TWO**
**PERCENT**
**TLDR** - 82% of pregnant women who received at least their first dose of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine by 20 weeks gestation had a spontaneous abortion (96/104 occurred before 13 weeks gestation).
Someone, please tell me I'm wrong.