I'm not sure what would be worse, Trump knowing his campaign was conspiring with the Russians or being so clueless and out of touch that he remained ignorant.

Manafort giving polling information to the oligarch was conspiracy plain and simple. Why do you think the Russians wanted that information? Just for an interesting read?

And how does their clear efforts to influence the election in favor of Trump not end up with the possibility that they changed the result? It's completely plausible given the scope of their troll operations.

Trump is either hopelessly negligent or involved in the conspiracy. Mueller's non-indictment may only be due to the uncertainty around taking that action against a sitting president. He's letting the DOJ and Congress sort it out.