Because we can’t read Russia’s mind

As an aside...

This gets me thinking of how an autocracy has an advantage in strategic matters. Putin is able to plan this all out in his head and then make his moves, without anyone being able to guess.

In the United States, all decisions flow downstream from the cathedral. Changes that are put into place are printed for everyone to see far in advance.

In "The Three Body Problem", science fiction author Cixin Liu envisioned a world in which a hostile alien race could see and hear everything that happened on Earth, but not read thoughts. So humanity chose 4 people to make plans to defeat the aliens. The 4 people controlled vast amounts of the world's resources and were given unilateral authority without ever explaining their decisions.