Aiight @jh3618 - I don't mean to argue either - I'm just trying to make sure the guide is as accurate as possible
Here we go - First there are 7 types of Orbs - Force, Speed, Technique, Heart, Knowledge, Combo and Meat (or if you're more familiar with Global - STR, QCK, DEX, PSY, INT, TND and Meat).
Thus there is a 1/7 chance of you getting a matching orb. There are 6 units so the chances of getting a matching orb is 3/6 * 1/7 (more factors but let's worry about that later) - so that gives us a 1/14 for ANY of the 3 having a needed Orb.
There is thus also a 1/14 Chance of getting a non-matched Orb.
As such don't your believe it's not worth considering Orbs when it comes to comparing teams? Especially since Orb Manipulation is in the game?.
In addition - Your Calculations were right in THAT scenario - Gear 3 will do more damage than Whitebeard. The reason is that your first 3 units are significantly lower/weaker than the later 3 targets.
BUT!!!! I did take a look at your picture and ran the Calculations as well as discuss with people. Yes - in your scenario, Luffy does outdamage Whitebeard.
Reason why? Simple - Your First 3 Units are significantly weaker than your latter 3 Units. Whitebeard surpasses Luffy in damage due to the ability to share the boost evenly. Thus even if the "first 3" units gets Orbs (thru Orb Manipulation or pure luck), you can still benefit. If your units are balanced - all 1000 ATK (And you can try this youself), Whitebeard will outdamage Luffy.
The Combined Multiplier Whitebeard gives is overall Higher. And thus in most situations especially mid/late-game scenarios - Whitebeard WILL outdamage Luffy
However, due to the distribution of the Multipliers, if your latter 3 Units are significantly higher than your first 3 i.e (1000 vs 500 in your case) than Luffy will do more damage.
So I'm still correct in saying "Luffy Teams CAN NOT beat Whitebeard's multipliers EVER." - However Luffy teams may outdamage Whitebeard IF (as you've shown - the first 3 are significantly lower than the latter 3)