/u/Armada_ /u/ppmd1 /u/pewpewu /u/leffen

In the Fox vs Marth matchup:

1. Punish Game We know that when Marth u-throws Fox onto a platform, Fox can CC/ASDI down Marth's unstaled u-air to 58% pre-hit(staled even higher) and tech in place so that Marth can't follow up at all after u-air. Fox can even do this: http://smashboards.com/threads/double-stick-di-out-of-marths-platform-combos.403279/ To me it seems like this makes Marth's combo game very weak on Fox until 60% onwards because Marth would have to either guess on higher/wider platforms like battlefield/dreamland with other moves like u-tilt OR rely more on f-throw techchases until fox is at mid percents(extremely difficult and also unreliable b/c fox can DI to the edge and jump out). Furthermore, when Fox gets to the ledge, Marth has a hard time punishing Fox at all because of his insane options out of invincible ledgedash. Marth can't even edgeguard Fox's sweetspotted illusions.

Punish game looks even more troubling when you consider Fox's side. Fox can cover Marth's high recoveries easily with bair, and can edgehog his sweetspot up-b with back jump ledge refreshes to force Marth to land on stage. His upthrows lead into practically guaranteed up-airs even if Marth can SDI( Fox can aim up-air either deep enough so that Marth needs 2 SDI inputs to avoid 2nd hit OR do single hit u-air) Marth also gets pinned down at the edge like no other and considering how often Marth gets pushed there, this is a huge problem. Fox can crouch and react to nearly all of Marth's ledge options very comfortably until mid-high percents or just zone with bair.

2.Neutral Game

In the neutral game, Marth has no confirms into grab, especially when Fox is good at holding down, weakening Marth's aerials and dtilt when interacting with Fox on the ground, and also making Fox's top platform camping nearly impossible to play cleanly against.(Watch how often Armada/Leffen win neutral against PPMD/M2K when camping top platform) In essence, this is because even if marth got a hit from sharking underneath top platform, Fox can just shield drop and trade that damage for positioning,or back-air if Marth is too close.

On offense, Fox can close distance with lasting hitboxes that can't be CC'd past 30%, and can zone Marth extremely effectively with threat of CC. Marth's options to escape through platforms or to the edge are extremely poor for his positioning. Furthermore, if Marth's only good option to go towards the center of the stage with his ground movement, it becomes much more predictable for the fox to react to. Marth has to be afraid of a greater variety of moves that can almost all lead into confirms like shine, grab, or straight into a juggle.

My Question: Why is this matchup considered by many of the top players (including you PP), to be roughly even or Marth favored? If you or Armada could give me some insight or especially if you could address some of the points I brought up that would be extremely helpful.