The idea is that they would be routed and physically captured in a conventional war not summarily surrender because the dictator said so.

The Americans will need far more ammunition for the simple reason that they've made an enemy of the entire population.

And they will have significantly more than the population.

And again, the cubans will have the support of the winning American faction while the exiles will have whatever they brought.

Okay, so this seems to be the crux of your argument over and over again despite me addressing it: they may have no navy, the civil war may last years even after one faction flounders, and there would be a significant demilitarization after the civil war is one.

As for the port issue, how long do you think the Americans could hold all the ports? We've already established that they don't have oil for their ships or planes,

No. We haven't established that at all. What happens is that I make a point and you ignore it and then you make other arguments and pretend like I haven't addressed something I already have. In this instance, "we have established they won't get oil." No, I pointed out that it's best for countries to do business with both of them and you never responded.