As a European, I'd call it at a 65-70% chance for Trump and a 30-35% chance for Biden right now.

I don't think the Democrats have really figured out why they lost in 2016 (they sure aren't acting on it), they tend to not acknowledge their issues, and even when they do, they aren't looking around the world to see how others have reacted to them to find out what works, and they seem fundamentally incapable of acting with any reasonable degree of unison, causing them to mostly look like a jumbled mess.

The Republicans have a far worse hand, but they're playing it well, while the Democrats have a great hand, but are too busy ripping the cards up to even play.

Of course, the odds could (and likely will) change later, so it doesn't make sense to call it already, but the Democrats are gonna have to step up if they want to win.