I got downvoted when I posted this analysis for the ESL ESEA LAN but guess who came up on top? I went from $20 to $60 ONLY ICBING on the teams I thought could be potential underdogs.
I will be honest with you guys, I can give you guys a full broken down, detailed analysis for each match tomorrow, but I really don't think it will matter. Yeah of course NiP is better than the QeeYou. Of course Navi is better than SK gaming. Of course Titan is better than LG. But its a BO1. BATTLE OF 1. As you can tell from ESL ESEA LAN that ANYTHING can happen in BO1s. TSM went home and didn't even make it out of the group stages. 3 of the 4 NA teams upset T1 EUROPEAN teams. Who thought c9 would make it to the Finals in a LAN against T1 European teams? No one. But they did. They upset so many teams and almost beat fnatic, the number one team in the world, in a BO5. Fnatic barely beat c9 on the last 2 maps. All the analysis people write, yeah they will help, but no they will not be 100% accurate. Yeah, skill wise, aim wise, strat wise, communication wise, the european T1 teams should take this, but its a BO1 and the potential of an upset in all these matches are VERY HIGH. I'm sure a majority of you haven't even seen QeeYou and Ze Pug Godz (Boreal) play before and even if you have seen them play once, you can't say you know the team, unless youre an avid follower.
So what do I think about betting in the games tomorrow? If the odds are ridiculous for a game, why not ICB on the underdog? If it's a 50/50, 55/45, 60/40 game, why not try to play the odds or just go with your gut. If you think Liquid can take LDLC white, why not just got LOW on them? There is NO REASON, and I mean ABSOLUTELY NO REASON for you to bet high on ANY of these games. Save your high valued skins for the BO3s and the Final. Who knows? Maybe QeeYou will make it to the finals? Maybe Ze Pug Godz will make it to the finals? Cloud9 did, and nobody expected it, why can't any of the other teams?
My Odds: 50-50 (BO1, Risky, Some teams don't play well in the first day)
Risk: High for each game (Teams prepare strats and come up with new strats and counter strats so you never know what teams can pull out of their pocket)
My Bet: Will be on spreadsheet if I do decide to bet
My Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AmOrjhuurEC-HqBKPndh0jhy9B_GL1-3zGYOpndeQK8/edit#gid=0