That seems to be what people think, but I honestly disagree. Thanks for the response!
I disagree. Look through Cruz's record, not many strikers in there at all, more grapplers if anything. Cruz wins his fights THROUGH his striking. Cruz generally wins his fights one of two ways: making grapplers/inferior strikers look silly on the feet, or using his wrestling against guys who are superior, or very good strikers. He used this approach against Demetrious Johnson, who would have taken the UD if the fight was based entirely on the stand up exchanges. Because these are his two options, he struggled vs Dillashaw as I'm sure you saw. Dillashaw has the insane striking, as well as the wrestling, and he largely nullified Cruz's wrestling, which is his back up plan vs good strikers. Cody is a boxer, and a good one at that. A 32-1 amateur record is no joke no matter who, or where you are. Along with that, he has the wrestling background, so he won't get wrestlefucked by Dom. Along with that, nobody from TAM has ever been wrestlefucked, Cody is not going to be the first. Cruz's movement isn't going to do anything for an extremely skilful boxer who knows how to cut the ring. Twinkle toes aside, Cruz is ultimately moving in one direction at a time, no different to a fighter with less movement. He can, and will get cut off. I guarantee Cody has sparred and fought fighters with better footwork than Cruz in his boxing days, a lot more exist in boxing, but Cruz is an anomaly in MMA. Add to this, Cody's speed and power advantage. One shot on Cruz's chin, and the fight will change. Granted, Cruz avoids 75% of strikes thrown at him. But he ate numerous head kicks vs Dillashaw, and you're in la-la land if you think that if he's going to get those landed on him, the best boxer in the division won't be able to find his chin.
By physical attributes I don't really mean size or reach, I mean more health/condition. Cruz has had 3-4 major ACL surgeries, and he isn't the Cruz of 2010 anymore physically. Given much of his fighting style revolves around his physical advantages, agility, speed, etc, this won't be good for him. At this point, Cruz probably has the body of a 40 year old. He is past his peak in every sense, and he is coming up against a young beast.
This brings me to the mental aspect. Here, I'm focusing more on Garbrandt. Cruz's mental fortitude can't be disputed, for the reasons you provided and it was great seeing him win his belt back. But, Garbrandt has been preparing for Cruz since his teens, and has been visualising this moment for years. He shines in the spotlight, and is 100% confident and not scared of Cruz. Not to be an armchair psychologist, but Cruz looked scared during Cruz's post fight interview after KOing Mizugaki.
I never said Cody is better at every attribute of MMA than Cruz, because that's incorrect. He has better boxing, speed, power, and that's probably about it. But, if you examine this SPECIFIC MATCH UP from every angle, I can only see a Garbrandt win.
You're acting like he's fighting Mayweather. Cruz's career strike defence % is 75%. That includes all his fights against cans, and grapplers. So, if Cody puts on an AVERAGE striking performance against Cruz (unlikely, as Cruz is slower than before, and Cody is the best boxer he has ever faced), he will still land 1/4 shots, 2/8, 8/32 shots on Cruz's chin. This is if he has an AVERAGE performance. You acknowledged yourself it only takes one. There's nothing hard about putting a guy out in 1 round, which is what will happen.