I’ve found I can win 50% when down ~1200 OVR to the CPU. Step 3 below is where the W/L is really made.

1. Onside kick to start the game (if you recover, you should be set up to win)
2. If CPU recovers, let them score quickly (FG Block until they lob over your D, use timeouts if you get a tackle), hopefully this leaves you enough time to score on your possession in the first half
3. Try to score with whatever time left using plays you’re comfortable with; if you get a TD, go for 2
4. If you go up 8-7 after the first half, grind clock when you get the ball in the second half.

If you win, auto the rest. If you lose, you get half the stamina you spent back. Makes it worthwhile to try often.