OPS doesn't matter in this conversation. We're talking about whether he'd get 65 hits in 2008.

We're not talking about On Base Percentage (which was really inflated because Bonds was deservedly walked a ton), or Slugging because we're not talking about HRs. HITS are all that count here.

In '07 he was hitting an AVG of .276 with an OBP of .480. He had been declining in Games Played and Plate Appearances over the previous few years. Even leaving his injured '05 season out, he dropped from 617 PAs to 493 from '04-'06. That's huge. You're also trying to compare his 477 PAs in '07 to Cabrera's 697 in '12, when BBs were 132 to 66. Bonds walked over a quarter of the times he came to the plate that season. BBs don't get you to 3k hits.

His defense was shot, and he was a free agent. Even though he had been a monster at the plate, he was still getting old, and there are negative effects to steroids on top of that. We've known for awhile that Front Offices would consider steroid use when evaluating whether to trade or sign someone, so teams would be projecting that as a health factor too. If he stays in the NL, he's likely to be a pinch hitter, or possibly a 1B if he's lucky. If an AL team picks up his free agency, the DH is thrown into the mix. But still, plate appearances are likely to decline sharply as there were better options for 1B/DH in 2008, and Bonds ends up as a PH.

When Bonds comes to the plate in '08, you're right that his OPS is likely to be through the roof, but would that translate into the hits that he needed? I would say no. He'd be the best pinch hitter of all time for an AL team like the Yankees or the Tigers, but his PAs would be rare and the only outcome would be an IBB/BB, HR, or SO. He ends up with about 100PA, 20BB, 7HR, and 27 Hits.

Bonds fails to make it to 3000 hits in '08. Please stop being a Giants fan for two seconds when you think about this. Bonds has a ton of untouchable stats, but he wouldn't add the 3k hit club to his massive roll of honors if he played in '08.