I'm arguing that you can't separate ~believes X and believes ~X in the case of God because believing or disbelieving in God either way has serious consequences for how the world is organized (for everybody). You can't get very far in creating a picture of the world without answering whether or not God is going to be a part of this picture.

You didn't actually address why the two aren't analogous you just said that the marbles aren't important to understanding the world and god is but that's completely irrelevant to the point of the analogy.

The analogy is trying to show that there's a difference between ~believes X and believes ~X right? But it doesn't work because it's easy to not have a belief either way with regards to marbles but not particularly possible with regards to God's existence.

That's irrelevant. Something isn't true or not true depending on it's consequences.

This is irrelevant to the point I'm making. I'm not arguing about whether or not God exists.

If you have to lean one way or the other on something in part because you couldn't bare to live without certainty then you aren't being completely intellectually honest because sometimes the appropriate answer to a question is I don't know. That doesn't mean you're wrong about the existence of god but that you have closed yourself off to a potentially valid answer, which should indicate you should heavily consider personal bias. Unless the truth isn't that important to you.

This is also irrelevant.

If I go to a court case about rape and it's a purely a he said/she said with no physical evidence or eye witnesses than the only justified position to take is not guilty. Not because you know that the accused is innocent but that you don't have enough evidence to make a judgement call either way.

Court case analogies aren't appropriate for this kind of discussion and I'm not going to respond to them.

So saying I don't know for sure in the absence of objective evidence is justifiable and it doesn't imply that I actively believe in the nonexistence of god.

What I'm saying is that you're either lying to me or to yourself about whether or not you believe in the nonexistence of God if you're saying you don't believe in the existence of God. Too much rests on whether or not God exists or not for you to have no beliefs either way. Either you lack a belief in God's non-existence or you have a belief in God's non-existence - are you saying that the former is the case?