Which countries (if any) are currently at a highest risk of balkanization in the next 10-20yrs?

I could easily see Turkey weakening though, or if it doesn't, continued US backing that would be vital to political stability would be contingent on them not genociding the Kurds. Now that Turkey is ruled by Islamist totalitarianism, with the military that usually restores secular "democracy" with a coup every time someone like Erdogan happens having been preemptively defanged, the legitimacy of the state depends on its perceived adherence to and enforcement of whatever self-serving interpretation of Shariah law Turkey's clerics fart out. But we all know that's never actually the case, in reality what happens in these types of theocracies is that the ruler lives a luxurious lifestyle of corruption and moral depravity, while the clerics pretend he's not and tell the public he's not. Middle Eastern royalty drink all the liquor they want, eat all the bacon they want, and hire all the escorts they want.

In exchange, the ruler only rules on strictly economic matters, it's the clerics who truly rule the country, they get to decide social and economic policy and use the ruler as a figurehead to rally the public behind. Eventually though, the ruler does something indefensibly stupid or the clerics turn on them, the veil falls, and the public gets sick of the corruption and depravity and revolts. This revolt to restore political Islam might be successful, as we saw in Egypt (temporarily) or Libya (in theory there's a secular central government but in practice, the extremist groups fully control their territory in exchange for not killing everyone), or not, as we saw in Syria. Saudi Arabian royalty narrowly prevented their own violent religious revival by purging the palace. But even if it fails, and the leader returns to power with outside help, Syria has lost too much economic and military power to ever fully rebuild it. When Erdogan becomes too insular and decadent for the rural extremists to support, and this will probably happen long before water issues get bad enough for a Kurdish final solution to be required, Turkey may come out of the civil war unable to adequately control the east regardless of who wins.

/r/geopolitics Thread Parent