Where it could "settle" in the short term is more a function of the daily/monthly news of the economy, the vehicle industry and market volatility. What is TSLA worth?
Alright, here are my thoughts and I am sure someone can come in here and school me a bit (I look forward to it) AND I am probably looking at a bit of a happy path scenario here.
I am going to use 2020 as the benchmark, as Elon is indicating 500,000 vehicle production per year by 2020.
Number of shares in 2020
Currently there are 146 Million shares and they have announced another 2 billion and at current prices, that adds about another 9.3 million shares or a total of about 155m.
Revenue in 2020
Elon is predicting 500k production in 2020 and if they sell 500k that year with a mix of:
Model s 100,000 at 70k
7,000,000,000
model 3 400,000 at 35k
14,000,000,000
That leaves 21 Billion and rev/share of about $124.
Obviously, some of the ones produced in 2020 will be sold in 2021... and some produced in 2019 will be sold in 2020.
Expenditures in 2020
current yearly operating expense
4,800,000,000 billion
if doubled, 9,600,000,000
in 2020 that leaves 11,400,000,000 or about 73.50/share…. or about 3 P/E at current prices
if quadrupled 19,200,000,000
in 2020 that leaves 1,800,000,000 or about 11.60/share…. or about 18 P/E at current prices
Summary
If the time I spent crunching these numbers are even close to correct, the current price in relation to what Elon expects to generate in 2020 is CHEAP.
I would expect a growth stock of this magnitude... IF they are able to execute... to be well above 18 P/E. I would expect 100 to Amazon like P/E numbers. That would put the stock price in 2020 at REDICULOUS prices.
Why is it undervalued?
Put hope in one hand and a pile of shit in the other and see which one fills up first. We are dealing in the realm of could be's and wanna be's, not IS doing.... but it sure as shit is not for lack of trying and the "doing" part seems to come to fruition more and more. Elon indicated they will show a profit this year. I look forward to that happening as a benchmark of the timeline.
There is a perception that since oil prices are low... TSLA will no longer be popular. The selling and trends, imo, are showing otherwise.
If Elon Musk dies tomorrow - - Tesla will not operate at the same capacity. He is a smart version of Steve Jobs, and Steve Jobs was no dummy.
The value here is not what they ARE doing, but the potential that is there. There are lot's of variations of the stuff shown above, but many of them show variations of profit as well as losses. If they turn out to be the game changers that is the hype right now, sky is the limit. If they are not, then it was just a speculation gone bad - any money in this stock is a speculation and not a move to preserve capital.