It "primarily" represents people who choose to cancel their coverage.

Not all those who are being predicted to choose are ones that would do so now but won't because of the mandate. The paper predicts that prices will increase for lower-class people a hell of a lot, and those price increases are predicted cause a lot (but not all) of the cancellations:

Under this legislation, starting in 2020, the premium for a silver plan would typically be a relatively high percentage of income for low-income people. The deductible for a plan with an actuarial value of 58 percent would be a significantly higher percentage of income—also making such a plan unattractive, but for a different reason. As a result,despite being eligible for premium tax credits, few low-income people would purchase any plan, CBO and JCT estimate.

So that big scary number with lots of commas and zeroes doesn't wholly represent low income people being kicked off their Obamacare plan and left with nothing.

Anyone who interpreted the 22 million who will lose coverage as all poor people are wrong, we both agree there. But a significant percentage of them are. By 2026, 15 million people who are currently on Medicaid will lose their health insurance.

Reading through the paper, it seems like the prediction is very bad for lower class workers. Many of them won't be able to afford coverage anymore, and many of them who will will be paying more

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