ELI5: How does the United States run on a deficit, and what does that ACTUALLY mean for the future?

It's not actually accurate though. What u/sdneidich is admitting to our creditors is that we never have the intention of paying the debt off. We are not improving faster than we are taking on debt, we are deteriorating our financial position and it will have consequences for us in the future.

A nation cannot run trade deficits and continue to borrow money forever. Interest payments on the national debt (currently $250billion) are only low now because of 0% rates and the Fed's monetization of the debt. The interest rates will go higher eventually and that will be very burdensome on the federal budget. Medicare/Medicaid will not have sufficient funds to meet their obligations by 2024 as the population ages and starts collecting and more people become poorer and therefore gain access to Medicaid. By 2030 interest payments on the national debt and entitlements will consume the entire budget. The Federal Reserve is already leveraged nearly 80 to 1, technically it's insolvent already and people are calling for the Fed to leverage up even further with another QE program.

When a nation has a current account deficit (trade deficit), the only way for its population to have a "real" net savings rate [meaning adjusted for inflation] is for the government to have a budget deficit (because more money is being sent abroad for foreign goods than the amount of money coming in through exports). I would remind you that before the US became the largest debtor nation in world history, it used to be the world's largest creditor. The suspension of the gold standard in 1971 to a fiat system of money born exclusively of debt caused rapid credit growth which shifted the economy from production to encourage debt-financed consumption. A nation cannot consume more than it produces forever. Look at the European countries that have strong economic performance also have current account surpluses- Norway, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, etc. China is another export power house economy that has accumulated massive foreign reserves this way.

Now look at the countries going bankrupt Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, etc. All have large current account deficits, budget deficits, and national debts up to their eyeballs in common. That is us in the not so distant future.

/r/explainlikeimfive Thread Parent