i also appreciate the quality and effort, put had to stop after analysing the 1st game SG series and realised that i dont agree at all with your 6.7kmmr players logical analysis of that game.
SG clearly have the better draft in this game, but to say that arc warden is bad vs puck mid... arc warden skills e 1st, 4 second cd spell that puck can dodge with his phase shift that has a 6 second cd or puck can skill orb and get dominated out of the lane by arc wardens faster/longer ranged attacks and e spam.
SG has 3 heros that can roam mid, with the most likely the MK. This will 100% hinder Arc`s dominance of the mid lane, but i feel once arc warden gets level 2 he can kill any roamer Og have.
If they play even slightly too aggressive and get hit by the tower, Arc wardens slow/dmg potential in the laning phase is INSANE and his q/e kill potential even at level 2 on a MK or puck is very good imo.
Why did Anas Arc Warden not win this game for OG? Its simple, SG have a cm that has a mana regen aura that is FANTASTIC with all 4 of there other heros.
Slark has a free farming lane that he can kill anyone that comes in except FV (FV was on the other side of the map, so this is irrelevant before notail rotates to slarks lane).
Slark will easily get a sb by 12 mins in this game, and will rotate to kill Arc warden easily.
The only thing that can stop this is a Chrono on Slark from FV, the problem with this is enigma can Black hole fv, cm can Frostbite Fv before/during Chrono.
Puck was a perfect Fv counter this game, he can stop the initiation with silence combo if he goes Blink 1st item and should have blink by 12 EVEN with his arc warden lane due to the Mk roaming creating space for him mid and his Cm mana regen aura helping him spam spells and farm faster.
Puck also has Ult to disrupt Fv before he tries to initiate on Slark, during the chrono or when Fv is trying to run down Slark after, trying to bash him and secure the kill.
So to summaries Arc vs Puck: Favourable? YES
Does the hero fits the lineup ? YES
Was there a better Mid pick ? YES... ZEUS is the perfect pick this game, here`s why:
Zeus is a global Dmg dealer that synergise`s with MK/Barided roaming/global ganks. FV Chono Damage input and the global vision provided before the initiation secures GAME WINNING ganks such as Slark.
Using his w, he can counter slarks/supports dewarding dominance battle and Slark/cms invis items (SB/Glimmer cape). Zeus W and ult also counter enigma `s Blink Dagger initiation and Black hole.
Zeus was easily the best pick for OG`s mid Ana this game and would of salvaged there draft, the loss would of likely of been a win (85%) imo.
The Arc warden pick syergises well with Fvs chono and OGs global ganks/initiations with his BoTs and was a strong pick, BUT not strong enough to salvage the 1st 4 picks. ONLY Zeus could of done this game as there last pick.
Ty for this great post, but i feel my replies amount of analysis is needed per game to be accurate of the drafts strengths, i look forward to any constructive criticism anyone can provide on why my analysis was incorrect.
P.s This was great brain/writing exercise and i hope someone out there appreciates my effort.