How can crude possibly get any cheaper?

Oil Demand

The best single source for this is Seth Kleinman's report for institutional investors, which unfortunately is confidential, but there is some publicly available reporting on a 2013 version of his pitch here, and some Google-Fu might bring up more. Here are the main points, or the gist of them anyway:

  1. Cars are much more efficient than they used to be;
  2. We drive less than we used to, not just in the US but throughout the developed world;
  3. Partly because of (1) and (2), oil consumption growth has been flat the last few years -- far below where we would have expected if the normal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption still held. Carbon consumption in general and oil consumption in particular are smaller on a per GDP basis than they used to be. It's no longer a given that we'll consume more as the economy grows.
  4. It's a little hard to believe India, China, etc will start driving a lot more any time soon without breathtaking road capacity growth just because of how crowded their roads already are (and this was the case even when people were still excited about rapid growth there)
  5. ...about growth there...
  6. Oil is cheap, but natural gas is even cheaper, and there are places and uses for which nat gas is already substituting for oil (electricity generation, even in the US but especially elsewhere; some vehicle fleets of various kinds throughout the world, etc). UPS is famous for this, but there's a lot of potential for converting some kinds of trucks, ships, etc to run on natural gas.
  7. Expect more and more pressure to capture and use natural gas when it's produced (a surprising amount of the natural gas being taken out of the ground right now is being flared at the source or, worse, vented unburned) as the technology for doing it gets cheaper and environmental/ economic reasons to do it mount. The more of it does get captured, the cheaper natural gas gets
  8. Solar is way cheaper now than it was even two years ago, even without subsidies. China has set up gigawatts of PV fields, which there is a substitute for load to coal- and oil- fired power plants;
  9. A particular benefit of solar is that you don't actually need to build it gigawatts at a time -- if it gets much cheaper, and likely even if it doesn't, we'll start to see it all over India (most of India does not have anything like a modern power grid) and other places where the grid is unreliable.
  10. Whenif fully electric cars become a significant portion of the developed-world car fleet (and they've sold incredibly well the last year, and they'll be a significant portion before long if that continues)...we get a lot more of points (1) and (3).

Sorry to draw on nonpublic sources, but each of these points should be look-into-able on its own.

/r/investing Thread Parent