I am in the undecided camp leaning towards innocent.
But you know what brick wall I keep hitting mentally when I try to figure it out? If it was premeditated, it was so incredibly dumb. If it was on-the-spot, NONE of this makes sense. I get that there's an ounce of motive in the whole breakup. That I can buy. But you lose me with either scenario.
If it was premeditated, he picked the DUMBEST possible time of day. He would have known she had to pick up her cousin. They were still friendly if not friends. I mean, he picked the smallest possible window where she would be noticed missing. I don't think there was a possibly worse time. I don't expect him to be a criminal mastermind or anything, but even the dumbest person would pick a different moment. He could have gotten her alone in an isolated place a thousand ways. It's an absurd decision. It also doesn't give him any kind of alibi, nor is there any real effort to create one. And if you DID need an alibi, would you pick Jay? It makes no sense. A fourth grader could plot out a better strategy.
But let's say it is spur of the moment. Then the whole nonsense about Jay's involvement makes no sense. He's the LAST person you'd turn to. He had an incredibly loyal community of friends. No one who committed a spur-of-the-moment murder is going to someone no better than an acquaintance to help bury a body. No one is going to tell anyone, let alone Jay the pot-head. You certainly aren't going to just keep hanging out with your buddies. I mean, I get that you'd panic. Anyone would. But the way this whole day plays out makes no sense. I try to put myself in his shoes where I accidentally or intentionally murdered my ex-girlfriend. I don't call anyone to tell them. I really don't call Jay. I don't go to track practice, then go and smoke pot. I'd either be furiously coming up with a way to distance myself from my actions and/or guilt, hiding the body and the car, trying to find a way to make sure there's some kind of alibi or some reasonable explanation as to where I was. Or, I'd keep my head down and try to spend my day in the most normal possible way I could. Meet my responsibilities, go to track, go home, see my parents, go to mosque, make sure EVERYONE knew I was there, basically try to make my day as ho-hum as I could. And I would absolutely know where I was every minute of that day.
I cannot figure out why he made any of the decisions he made. He's a smart kid. And the only thing I can come up with is this:
No physical evidence? Weak motive? Jay's 10,000 versions of events? What the hell is Jen's role in this? It doesn't make sense. And to say a 17 year old kid who has no history of criminal behavior, did this just makes no sense. There's no sense to be made. And it should be clear cut.
There's one line from serial that really sticks with me: the innocent people are fucking useless at helping themselves. They can't help themselves because they really literally don't know where they were, what happened, where the car was, nothing. I keep coming back to that and I can't imagine a scenario where anyone would make any of these choices.