[KH1] Does it really matter which weapon I choose at the beginning of the game?

Sora starts out in a "Dive to the Heart," a place inside of himself that acts like a dream. You gain control at the Snow White Platform where you must choose one item and sacrifice another. These choices serve as a starting point for your stats and also determine your skill order while leveling.

                               Dream Rod
                               ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
                       The power of the mystic.
                            Inner strength.
                      A staff of wonder and ruin.

                             Dream Shield
                             ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
                      The power of the guardian.
                       Kindness to aid friends.
                        A shield to repel all.

                              Dream Sword
                              ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
                       The power of the warrior.
                          Invincible courage.
                    A sword of terrible destruction.

The choice you really need to make is going to be whether you want +2 Item Slots or want 3 MP instead of 2. Taking the Dream Rod will always net 3 MP at the start of the game and 10 MP at the end. Taking the Sword or Shield will have you start with 2 MP and finish the game with 8 MP. The Shield always gives the +2 Item Slots so choosing Sword has no statistical benefit since you can increase your Strength, Defense, and AP through items to reach their maximum.

                        Sora's Stats - Level 1
                        ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
    |¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
    | CHOOSE | SACRIFICE | HP | MP | AP | STR | DEF | ITM | ACC. |
    |========|===========|====|====|====|=====|=====|=====|======|
    | Rod    | Shield    | 18 |  3 |  3 |  5  |  1  |  3  |  2   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Rod    | Sword     | 18 |  3 |  3 |  3  |  3  |  3  |  2   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Shield | Rod       | 18 |  2 |  1 |  5  |  4  |  3  |  2   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Shield | Sword     | 18 |  2 |  3 |  4  |  4  |  3  |  2   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Sword  | Rod       | 18 |  2 |  1 |  6  |  2  |  3  |  2   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Sword  | Shield    | 18 |  2 |  3 |  6  |  1  |  3  |  2   |
    |________|___________|____|____|____|_____|_____|_____|______|

                       Sora's Stats - Level 100
                       ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
    |¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
    | CHOOSE | SACRIFICE | HP | MP | AP | STR | DEF | ITM | ACC. |
    |========|===========|====|====|====|=====|=====|=====|======|
    | Rod    | Shield    | 87 | 10 | 51 |  48 |  46 |  6  |  3   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Rod    | Sword     | 87 | 10 | 51 |  46 |  48 |  6  |  3   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Shield | Rod       | 87 |  8 | 49 |  48 |  49 |  8  |  3   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Shield | Sword     | 87 |  8 | 51 |  47 |  49 |  8  |  3   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Sword  | Rod       | 87 |  8 | 49 |  49 |  46 |  7  |  3   |
    |--------|-----------|----|----|----|-----|-----|-----|------|
    | Sword  | Shield    | 87 |  8 | 51 |  49 |  45 |  7  |  3   |
    |________|___________|____|____|____|_____|_____|_____|______|
/r/KingdomHearts Thread