Am I the only one that believes Usman could, and will, actually finish Masvidal a second time around? Or at least inflict much more damage?
I just rewatched the first fight (yes yes it was boring we get it shut up). It was the first time I watched it since it watching live last year. It was actually more uncompetitive than I remembered, but I also think a lot of aspects of that fight makes sense if you consider the circumstances surrounding the fight. Usman fought him on one weeks notice, and that’s not enough time to formulate an effective gameplan, especially considering he was preparing for an opponent with a very different style (Gilbert Burns). However, It was confirmed by Dustin Poirier that Masvidal was preparing to fight Usman since he entered camp for the Dan Hooker fight. That fight was two weeks after Poirier v. Hooker so we know he had at least somewhat ready and he had some semblance of a gameplan.
Usman is very much a calculated fighter, so it made a lot sense that he went to his classic pressure clinching/wrestling and went super safe with it without a gameplan. I found that he landed more strikes strikes than I remembered. In the first round, Masvidal was clearly too much of a threat at distance, but as Usman wore him down, Usman was striking with him more and landing. And even given the striking advantage, Masvidal spent much of the fight going backwards. Other than the first round, Masvidal had no answers for Usman’s ground game and clinch game. And Usman was just freely whaling on his ribs that whole fight whenever they clinched.
Now here’s where I think the rematch can be different:
Masvidal may have more stamina because the weight cut won’t be as severe.
The improvement of Kamaru’s footwork will play a significant role in this fight. I don’t remember who it was, maybe Luke Thomas, but someone commented the jab that won him the fight against Burns was a result of a change in footwork. They compared how Usman would jab in the Colby fight, stiff and quite predictable, to the Gilbert fight, where he jabbed while moving horizontally with great speed. Trevor Whitman is an amazing coach for learning footwork, possibly the best one in MMA. This is not to suggest that Usman will outstrike Masvidal, but keep in mind that footwork affects all aspects of MMA, including wrestling. Usman may understand how to position himself better for everything he wants to do.
They already fought. Usman likely experienced most of what Jorge is capable of. So with actual time to strategize, including what he personally experienced fighting him, and having a high fight IQ, it’s very likely that he can execute a gameplan that involves a lot of damage.
I think Usman will try to maul Masvidal more on the ground. Much has been said about Masvidal’s ground game, but from what I watched, Usman seemed fairly comfortable with him on the ground. The first round, Masvidal landed some hits off his back, but after he could really only go into guard.