option price is comes from iv plus premiums charged. risk comes from standard deviation.... sorry but you are very confused and are spreading misinformation information.

FFS, educate yourself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%E2%80%93Scholes_model

In particular

The following assumptions are made about the assets (which relate to the names of the assets):

...

Random walk: The instantaneous log return of the stock price is an infinitesimal random walk with drift ; more precisely, the stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion, and it is assumed that the drift and volatility of the motion are constant. If drift and volatility are time-varying, a suitably modified Black–Scholes formula can be deduced, as long as the volatility is not random.

Delta is derived from the above assumption, and when you equate that an option has a value of delta .04 with a 4% probability of hitting that option, you are assuming a random walk without any bias.

In other words, with the yen at 144 now, you are saying that you have the exact same probability that it goes to 125 versus it goes to 163.

I'd be happy to take the other side of the trade to to anyone that proposed that.

Oh wait, I've already done it.