Some economists predict that a crash is coming in the next few months, would inverse ETF’s be a good thing to consider investing in?

I am a perma bear. I hope that counts for something. No. Do not invest in inverse ETFs. They are loosing games. Someone will call it right by pure chance, and it will get very rich off of inverse ETFs. Again, this will be pure luck, not skill. Don't think you can do better.

The issue with the big crash (and the conditions are SUPER ripe for one) is that it CANT be predicted, at least not with any accuracy. The market prices in EVERYTHING, even when it gets so stupid far ahead of itself as it has now. Prices are stupid high, and will come down, but you will still loose money on an inverse ETF, and the reason is you can't predict when they will drop. As long as there is no "trigger" it will limp along or keep going up. A crash doesn't happen because people get progressively more scared over time (which is what is happening right now). A crash happens when scared people are surprised. Take very careful note of that last word. People are scared, and shoot be because the market is in an incredibly precarious spot. It should fall. It needs to fall. It needs to correct with how stupid over valued it is, but everyone already knows that. ALL the bears already know how stupid everything is right now, and expect the crash at any instant, but it still can't happen until there is a surprise. Something has to happen that no one expected, and that something has to cause at least a brief, genuine hysteria in enough traders to cause a panic sell that dips far enough to freak the rest of the market out when they see their portfolio drop. So if the trigger MUST be a surprise, then it must also be unexpected and unpredictable. If it is unexpected and unpredictable, you yourself are not going to be able to predict it and make money.

The right thing to do is just hold a bit of capital back so you can over fund when it tanks. That doesn't mean buy the dip, it mean limit your risk on the downside for your positions, make sure you have something there when it tanks that you can leverage for larger positions after the fall. My solution to that is to only deploy 75% of my capital right now, but I'm also just selling premium on monthly options, so holding back a little capital isn't too terribly difficult. I don't have to close anythhing or move any big money. Rather, I just don't open a new position when a couple of my standing ones close/expire.

/r/stocks Thread