I don't think it's over-analyzing. It seemed like a strange play so I thought of quick and obvious solutions. Although now that we're discussing it I'll put more thought into it.

I understand pro players also fuck around, but that seems like such a random thing to do, especially considering he was trying to position well and watch angles throughout the rest of the clip. For him to play the round seriously, and then randomly say "fuck it let me dick around by firing off a single bullet while checking behind me" sounds like a really big stretch.

It doesn't even sound like it's a fun way to fuck around or anything, and it doesn't feel right given the rest of the context. It being a misclick or a prefire makes way more sense to me.