Pick'Em Challenge Hype! We decided to simulate the Play-In stage over 200,000 times with our AI and found out which team has the biggest chance to advance to the main event.

I think you're overestimating the teams success of advancing. I know the example you made was that some teams have 100% I'm not dumb enough to understand the idea here, but just for fun lets say the best team has 90%, the 2nd best team has 85%, 3rd 80% and so on.

So you would want to put:

A: 3-0 90% and 85%, 80%, 75%, 70%, 65%, 60%, 55%

and not:

B: 3-0 55% and 90%, 85%, 80%, 75%, 70%, 65%, 60%

A means you're 0.9 + 0.9 + 0.9 = 3.6 odds to get 3-0 pick and the rest in total for advancing amounts to 4.9 in total. Both combined is 3.6 + 4.9 = 8.5.

B means you're 0.55 + 0.55 + 0.55 = 1.65 odds to get 3-0 pick and the rest in total for advancing amounts to 5.25 in total. Both combined is 1.65 + 5.25 = 6.9.

Higher number means better odds which is A.

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