I go with the opinion that if the trade fits your rule, there's no mistake. Losers happen.

• http://www.newtraderu.com/2015/02/09/trading-lessons-from-your-wins-losses/
• http://www.tradeciety.com/why-traders-lose-money-winrate/

But I still would like to share my opinion why prices did what they did.

Big picture

There's a big (red) 123 low, prices start trending to make the outbreak. The problem / what is happening:

• There is a smaller (green) 123 low, but prices go into congestion (blue box) before an outbreak happens.
• The outbreak technically defines a trend but is expected to fall back into the congestion because the new congestion has more value than the old 123 low.
• There's a new high (a) which has more value than the older congestion, an outbreak is expected to be true.
• Before an outbreak happens, prices go into a new congestion (white box).
• The white congestion has more value than the older point a.
• The next outbreak is expected to leave the blue congestion, but it's also expected to fall back into the white congestion. ( white > a > blue)
• The outbreak corrects as expected (and leaves us with the new point b).
• This is where and when you went short, above the blue congestion we just officially left.
• New point b has more value than older white congestion, next outbreak expected to be true.
• Outbreak happens.

Summary:

• Established upwards trend, even though it is / was congesting.
• Your short signal was an expected false breakout which had to be made to establish the current trend
• Support area very close. (blue area, formerly congestion)

Of course, looking at the daily chart, all of that happens in one big congestion we are leaving right now. I expect the outbreak to be true, as long as the daily doesnt close within the congestion. Picture

There are many more congestions here, but most of them arent really important.

TL;DR don't trade against the trend, dont trade in congestion, new is always better