Why they will:

1) pitching

• Hamels and Lee pitch like Hamels and Lee.
• Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez continues in the shape he's in right now, with an above average fastball and nasty breaking stuff, finishing with a WHIP around 1.15 and an ERA a tick over three. Phillies squeeze a combined 2-3 WAR out of Williams, Billingsley, and Harang. -Papelbon pitches like Papelbon. -Ken Giles's rookie season wasn't just a blip. In fact, he's better than ever and ranks among the league's best setup men. -(here's something) Jake Diekman and Andy Oliver both survive spring training and become the Phillies pair of flamethrowing lefties.

2) hitting

-Ben Revere is Ben Revere. Lots of singles and steals, slowly improving defense. Nothing not to like. -Dominic Brown doesn't play every day. Let me say that again: DOMINIC BRIAN DOESN'T PLAY EVERY DAY. Maybe he platoons with Ruf or even (shudders) Francouer. But we don't let him flop around for a whole season. -Darin Ruf gets a freaking chance. He's a right handed bat with power and plate discipline. I want him to get a good chance. Potentially 25 HR, 60 BB. -Howard continues to bounce back as he has so far in training. Hey, it could happen. Man is a professional athlete who played last season in the midst of family money drama. I say he can. -Utley remains a top ten second baseman. -Asche...I don't know, hits above .260. -Maikel Franco's raw power comes through and he catches ROY votes. -ultimately, the Phillies need their young bats to come alive. There were points last year when only Utley, Howard, and Byrd were producing at all.

3) the season -Phillies keep their heads above water (wooder), win wild card. -experience of the old dogs comes thru, everybody turns mad clutch (honestly all it takes in the postseason.)

Why they won't:

Very slim chance that all of that happens at once.

I can't wait to see who grabs Lee at the deadline, though