Path to (a possible) victory is IDAHO
This is the basic outline we need to go off of, for major states and time periods. Pragmatically, Trump and Kasich will remain a problem. If Trump hasn't locked up the nom by April, we face real challenges. As the Kasich / Trump fight continues, we lose media coverage and Kasich will siphon off support.
The fires are almost out, but if the Rep party continues to burn hotter than the Dems, we will not win. We also need, desperately to EXCLUSIVELY promote NEW media outlets. We can't link readers sites with 1 good Sanders article, surrounded by 15 hit pieces. It gets us no where! Without new, beautifully put together productions, tackling specific issues, like wages & tax, we can not win.
We need to develop a strategy for non-viability. How do we secure 90% of the votes in small population states, particularly among registered Dems? I think it's possible, but if we can't figure it out, or we will face long term problems.
As far as big states go, our next two are Washington and Wisconsin. Together they are as big as Florida, and heading into New York we should be 100 delegates closer to Clinton than we are today.
To win Pennsylvanian and New York we will require our new media outlets to be fully functional and capable of reaching a million people a day, within those states. Phone banking will not cut it.
That puts us through April. If we lose any of the big states by 40% or less, than we'd need to win CA by another +5%. Currently I have us needing 60% in CA. Lose two more big states hard, and we need 70% in CA to win the nom via pledge delegates. In theory we could win only 40% up to CA, but make her not viable in CA and still win. Let's plan for something sooner.
Tue, Mar 22 Idaho Caucus 27 Closed - Clinton Not Viable
Sat, Mar 26 Alaska Caucus (D) 20 Closed - Clinton Not Viable
Sat, Mar 26 Hawaii Caucus (D) 34 Closed - Clinton Not Viable
Sat, Mar 26 Washington Caucus (D) 118 Closed - Sanders needs 65%
Tue, Apr 5 Wisconsin 96 Open - Sanders needs 60%
Sat, Apr 9 Wyoming Caucus (D) 18 Closed - Clinton not viable
Tue, Apr 19 New York 291 Closed - Sanders needs 60%
Tue, Apr 26 Pennsylvania 210 Closed - Sanders needs 65%
Tue, May 3 Indiana 92 Open - Sanders needs 75%
Tue, May 10 West Virginia 34 Mixed - Sanders needs 70%
Tue, May 17 Kentucky (D) 61 Closed - Sanders needs 50%
Tue, May 17 Oregon 73 Closed - Sanders needs 70%
Sun, Jun 5 Puerto Rico Caucus (D) 67 Open - Clinton not viable
Tue, Jun 7 California 546 Mixed - Sanders needs 60%
Tue, Jun 7 New Jersey 142 Closed - Sanders needs 50%